Thursday, September 25, 2008

Sarah Palin on Foreign Policy, or Has the Country Lost Its Mind?

It's hard to believe this woman could, with non-negligible probability, have her finger on the nuclear button four months. (Given a 40% chance of McCain-Palin victory and about a 25% chance that McCain will die, resign, or be incapacitated while in office, the odds are 1 in 10 that we will witness President Palin.) Keep in mind that this is after weeks of tutoring, and she's being asked to simply explain one of her signature campaign lines.


Richard H. Serlin said...

If you had time, it would be valuable to examine the actuarial probability that sadly McCain would pass away before 2012. You could start with the actuarial probability for a 72 year old white non-smoker and then make adjustments for things like his history of Melanoma. If done well this could make for an important news release. It's certainly important for people to know in making a good decision in November's crucial election.

Richard H. Serlin said...

Of course, as much as this is important information for citizens to know in making a momentous decision, you would have to be careful in deciding how -- or even if -- to release it. The Republican machine obviously would not be above shamelessly trying to make you look like you wished ill of McCain. It might help them in their goal of, as McCain's campaign manager admitted, getting voters to not vote on the issues, that is to not vote on what the candidates would actually do for their families and the country.

September 28, 2008 12:52 AM

Ken Houghton said...

McCain isn't a nonsmoker; he's someone who stopped after a long period of addiction. (Remember, it was likely his addiction to tobacco that led the North Vietnamese to realize he would be a good choice to collaborate with them.)