Saturday, April 26, 2008


Krugman said in his column yesterday that "general election polls suggest that [Obama] might well lose to John McCain."

The problem with his argument is that the same polls show that Clinton might lose as well. Or rather, both Obama-McCain and Clinton-McCain matchups show statistical ties. Here are the latest Gallup polls:
I've always thought "electability" to be the wrong criterion for choosing a nominee, simply because there's so much uncertainty about the concept. We just don't know who will turn out to be more electable or not.

The argument that swayed many voters for Kerry in the 2004 primaries was that he was more "electable" than Dean, but in the end he apparently wasn't electable enough. Would Dean have had a better chance? Who knows? Likewise, while I'd like to think Obama is better poised to defeat McCain, I don't really know, and neither does anyone else. Rather than try to figure out who has the higher odds, it's much better to support the candidate you like the best.

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